‘A Critical Scenario’: Conflict on Iran Squeezes India's LPG Availability.

The repercussions of a military engagement being fought nearly 1,864 miles away are now impacting India's kitchens.

As US-Israeli strikes on Iran impede energy transports through the key maritime chokepoint, stocks of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are shrinking across India, compelling restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases shut down altogether.

Social media is awash with video clips showing queues outside fuel suppliers across Indian cities and towns as worries over fuel supplies spread. Commercial LPG users appear the worst hit: the sharpest squeeze is in restaurant kitchens.

"The situation is dire. Cooking gas simply isn't available," says a representative of the an industry group.

Most restaurants run either on commercial LPG cylinders or direct gas lines, and the lack of supply are now being felt across the country. "Numerous restaurants have shut down - some in northern India, many in the south. People are turning to solid fuels and induction stoves to keep food preparation going."

Localized Effects

In Mumbai, accounts say up to a significant portion of eateries are already completely or partially closed as commercial LPG supplies tighten. In the southern cities of Bengaluru and Chennai, some eateries say their cylinder inventory have depleted with little backup. "We can only make coffee and nothing else - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a chain proprietor in Bengaluru.

Restaurant managers are seeking alternatives. "Food options are being cut, some are opening only for dinner and opening only for dinner," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are varying as supplies ebb and flow. "Three restaurants in Delhi were shut yesterday - some have resumed operations. It's a changing landscape."

Retailers note a increase in sales of induction stoves, with some saying they are facing stockouts.

Official Position

Yet, the government maintains there is no shortage.

India has more than 300 million domestic LPG users and officials say cylinders are being reallocated to households as tensions from the regional hostilities ripple through energy markets.

About six out of ten of India's LPG is brought in from overseas, and about 90% of those imports pass through the critical waterway, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now effectively closed by the conflict.

The oil ministry says that it instructed refineries to increase LPG output for home needs, enhancing domestic production by about a quarter. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for vital industries such as medical and academic centers, while distribution will be "just and open".

"Some panic booking and stockpiling has been sparked by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a government spokesperson.

Widening Concern

Now the worry is extending beyond kitchens. On social media, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of motorbikes outside a fuel station. "Anxiety is palpable," the caption reads.

According to reports from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.

India imports the overwhelming majority of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about millions of barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from regional suppliers.

Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are hindered, the gap could be partly made up by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a refinery and oil markets analyst.

Based on shipping data and credible market sources, increased Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, lessening India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about 1.6 million barrels a day.

"Around 25-30 million Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only India and China as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.

LPG: The Real Vulnerability

The primary concern is kitchen fuel, experts note.

India consumes roughly 1 million barrels a day, but produces only less than half domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.

Refineries can tweak operations to produce a bit more LPG, but even a 10-20% boost would only increase domestic supply to about 47-50% of demand, leaving the country largely dependent on imports.

In short: "Oil import vulnerability can be moderately reduced through alternative sourcing. Processed petroleum stocks remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the critical issue to watch in the coming weeks."

What may be worsening the anxiety on the ground is not just scarcity but patchy deliveries - and the familiar spectre of stockpiling.

An industry representative claims price gouging.

"Suppliers are taking advantage of the situation - selling fuel on the black market and selling them at a inflated price. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and sold at a premium."

For now, India's petroleum stocks may be protected by global trade flows. But in kitchens across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next cylinder.