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Ouch. From one perspective, Australia's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global environmental conference and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of the Turkish coastal city, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had hoped hosting the environmental gathering could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the proposal to be approved. The prime minister's language were ambiguous at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a lead-up event on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what appeared to be an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. This framework is designed to operate by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for selecting next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "disruption" has been thrown around in recent days, and not just by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite understandable criticism of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to co-chair negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unresolved issues. For example, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement looking like the most promising opportunity possible to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.